Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg — League #32 2026

Bulgaria
Bulgaria
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
9/6/2016League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 1Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bulgaria73%
×Draw15%
Luxembourg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria
2.88
Luxembourg
1.13

Bulgaria creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bulgaria
1.75
Luxembourg
1.00

allows per match

Bulgaria
1.25
Luxembourg
4.00

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw
88%
Bulgaria or Luxembourg
85%
Draw or Luxembourg
27%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+
52%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals
94%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
78%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
54%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
68%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
31%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)
85%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.75 + Luxembourg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Bulgaria defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bulgaria scores more
73%
level
15%
Luxembourg scores more
12%

Bulgaria at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bulgaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 4-3 in League #32 on September 6, 2016.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.