Bulgaria U19 1–1 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belgium U19

F. Gigov 16'

K. Furo 84'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bulgaria U1921%

×Draw29%

Belgium U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.32

Bulgaria U19

0.73

Belgium U19

1.32

Belgium U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

0.38

creates per match

1.64

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Bulgaria U19

0.38

Belgium U19

1.64

allows per match

Bulgaria U19

1.00

Belgium U19

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw

49%

Bulgaria U19 or Belgium U19

71%

Draw or Belgium U19

79%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

6%

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

52%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

17%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

4%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

73%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

38%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 0.38 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.73

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more

21%

level

29%

Belgium U19 scores more

51%

Belgium U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. Barry← J. Kongolo

16'

F. Gigov

46'

K. Furo← N. Verkooijen

56'

N. De Cat

57'

J. Bawuah← N. De Cat

66'

V. Kaymakanov

74'

A. Raychev← K. Dimitrov

79'

D. Sadetinov← F. Gigov

80'

V. Lyubenov← V. Kaymakanov

81'

L. Goemaere← K. Haroun

81'

S. Lazar← W. Da Costa

84'

K. Furo

90+3'

L. Goemaere

90+1'

D. Dikliev← A. Martinov

Bulgaria

Belgium

1

Pieklak

4

▼

17

3

10

8

▼

Haroun

11

▼

Verkooije

16

▼

Cat

9

Mirisola

18

▼

19

1

5

6

2

15

13

10

14

▼

Martinov

7

▼

Dimitrov

9

⚽

▼

Gigov

17

▼

Kaymakano

Manager: T. Simov

74'▲A. Raychev←▼K. Dimitrov

79'▲D. Sadetinov←▼F. Gigov

80'▲V. Lyubenov←▼V. Kaymakanov

90+1'▲D. Dikliev←▼A. Martinov

Bulgaria U19 substitutes

11Raychev8Sadetinov4Lyubenov20Dikliev12Andreev3Bozhilov18Ivanov16Kazaldzhiev19Yotov

Manager: Jonathan Alves

15'▲K. Barry←▼J. Kongolo

46'▲K. Furo←▼N. Verkooijen

57'▲J. Bawuah←▼N. De Cat

81'▲L. Goemaere←▼K. Haroun

81'▲S. Lazar←▼W. Da Costa

Belgium U19 substitutes

13Barry20Furo15Bawuah6Goemaere7Lazar14Verstraeten2Opoku12Lendfers5Hoogen

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 1–1 Belgium U19

Bulgaria U19 and Belgium U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

Goals: F. Gigov (16'), K. Furo (84').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.

Bulgaria U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 1–1 Belgium U19