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Bulgaria U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
CANC
17:30
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
9/2/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bulgaria U1947%
×Draw21%
Belgium U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria U19
2.13
Belgium U19
1.75

Bulgaria U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bulgaria U19
3.00
Belgium U19
2.50

allows per match

Bulgaria U19
1.00
Belgium U19
1.25

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw
68%
Bulgaria U19 or Belgium U19
79%
Draw or Belgium U19
53%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
27%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
88%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
63%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
35%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
83%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
52%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 3.00 + Belgium U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Belgium U19 attack 2.50 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Belgium U19 scores more
32%

Bulgaria U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bulgaria U19 host Belgium U19

September 2, 2020: Bulgaria U19 take on Belgium U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bulgaria U19 host Belgium U19 at Estadio Camilo Cano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.