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BUL vs Blacks Power — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blacks Power
Blacks Power
2/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BUL59%
×Draw25%
Blacks Power16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.61
Blacks Power
0.70

BUL creates 130% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Blacks Power
0.57

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Blacks Power
1.79

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Blacks Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BUL or draw
84%
BUL or Blacks Power
75%
Draw or Blacks Power
41%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
32%
Blacks Power wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
80%
BUL 2+ goals
48%
BUL 3+ goals
22%
Blacks Power 1+ goals
50%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
16%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
79%
Blacks Power (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BUL scores more
59%
level
25%
Blacks Power scores more
16%

BUL at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BUL vs Blacks Power

BUL and Blacks Power drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.