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Blacks Power vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Blacks Power
Blacks Power
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
BUL
BUL
10/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power32%
×Draw29%
BUL39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacks Power
1.01
BUL
1.15

BUL creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

Blacks Power
0.93
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Blacks Power
1.14
BUL
1.08

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw
61%
Blacks Power or BUL
71%
Draw or BUL
68%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+
12%
BUL wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals
64%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
27%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
8%
BUL 1+ goals
68%
BUL 2+ goals
32%
BUL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)
45%
BUL (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

BUL attack 1.17 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blacks Power scores more
32%
level
29%
BUL scores more
39%

BUL at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Blacks Power 0–5 BUL

BUL beat Blacks Power 5-0 in Premier League on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Akii Bua Stadium in Lira.