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BUL vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
CANC
12:00
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
5/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

BUL52%
×Draw27%
Arua Hill21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.42
Arua Hill
0.79

BUL creates 80% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 36 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

BUL or draw
79%
BUL or Arua Hill
73%
Draw or Arua Hill
48%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
26%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
76%
BUL 2+ goals
41%
BUL 3+ goals
17%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
55%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
19%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
71%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BUL scores more
52%
level
27%
Arua Hill scores more
21%

BUL at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BUL host Arua Hill

May 25, 2024: BUL take on Arua Hill in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BUL host Arua Hill at FUFA Technical Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.