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Arua Hill vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
BUL
BUL
10/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Paridi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill41%
×Draw28%
BUL31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.29
BUL
1.08

Arua Hill creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 100 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
BUL
1.08

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
69%
Arua Hill or BUL
72%
Draw or BUL
59%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
19%
BUL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
72%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
37%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
14%
BUL 1+ goals
66%
BUL 2+ goals
29%
BUL 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
57%
BUL (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

BUL attack 1.17 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arua Hill scores more
41%
level
28%
BUL scores more
31%

Arua Hill at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arua Hill 1–2 BUL

BUL beat Arua Hill 2-1 in Premier League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Paridi Stadium in Adjumani.