Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bukovyna vs Dinaz Vyshhorod — Persha Liga 2019

Bukovyna
Bukovyna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
4/27/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 6Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bukovyna55%
×Draw24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukovyna
1.69
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.95

Bukovyna creates 78% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bukovyna
1.49
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.97

allows per match

Bukovyna
0.92
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.89

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par
Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw
79%
Bukovyna or Dinaz Vyshhorod
76%
Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod
45%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+
30%
Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals
82%
Bukovyna 2+ goals
50%
Bukovyna 3+ goals
24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
61%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
25%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)
72%
Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.49 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 0.97 + Bukovyna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bukovyna scores more
55%
level
24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
21%

Bukovyna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bukovyna vs Dinaz Vyshhorod

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Bukovyna 1-0 in Persha Liga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bukovyna in Chernivtsi.