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Bukovyna vs Dinaz Vyshhorod — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Bukovyna
Bukovyna
CANC
14:00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
4/2/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 22Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bukovyna37%
×Draw27%
Dinaz Vyshhorod36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukovyna
1.27
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Bukovyna
1.19
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.26

allows per match

Bukovyna
1.19
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.36

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par
Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw
64%
Bukovyna or Dinaz Vyshhorod
73%
Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod
63%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+
16%
Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals
72%
Bukovyna 2+ goals
36%
Bukovyna 3+ goals
14%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
71%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
35%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)
51%
Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.19 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.26 + Bukovyna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bukovyna scores more
37%
level
27%
Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
36%

Bukovyna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bukovyna face Dinaz Vyshhorod (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Bukovyna hosting Dinaz Vyshhorod. Match starts April 2, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bukovyna host Dinaz Vyshhorod at Stadion Bukovyna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.