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Bukavu Dawa vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
1/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa42%
×Draw30%
Anges Verts29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
1.18
Anges Verts
0.92

Bukavu Dawa creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
71%
Bukavu Dawa or Anges Verts
70%
Draw or Anges Verts
58%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
18%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
69%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
33%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
12%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
60%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
23%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
59%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
42%
level
30%
Anges Verts scores more
29%

Bukavu Dawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bukavu Dawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bukavu Dawa vs Anges Verts

Bukavu Dawa and Anges Verts drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on January 10, 2026.