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Anges Verts vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Anges Verts
Anges Verts
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
12/12/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Anges Verts47%
×Draw25%
Bukavu Dawa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anges Verts
1.56
Bukavu Dawa
1.15

Anges Verts creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

creates per match

Anges Verts
1.16
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Anges Verts
1.48
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw
72%
Anges Verts or Bukavu Dawa
75%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
53%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+
24%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals
79%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
46%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
21%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
68%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
32%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)
62%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Anges Verts scores more
47%
level
25%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
28%

Anges Verts at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Anges Verts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Anges Verts 4–3 Bukavu Dawa

Anges Verts beat Bukavu Dawa 4-3 in Ligue 1 on December 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.