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Budissa Bautzen vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
0 – 2
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
8/7/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Budissa Bautzen53%
×Draw22%
An der Fahner Höhe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
1.90
An der Fahner Höhe
1.21

Budissa Bautzen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 37 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
76%
Budissa Bautzen or An der Fahner Höhe
78%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
47%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
31%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
85%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
56%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
29%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
70%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
34%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
69%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
53%
level
22%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
24%

Budissa Bautzen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 0–2 An der Fahner Höhe

An der Fahner Höhe beat Budissa Bautzen 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.