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An der Fahner Höhe vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
4/30/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 20Stadion Dachwig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe39%
×Draw22%
Budissa Bautzen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An der Fahner Höhe
1.77
Budissa Bautzen
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe
1.41
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe
1.76
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw
61%
An der Fahner Höhe or Budissa Bautzen
78%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
61%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
20%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
83%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
53%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
26%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
83%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
53%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
50%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more
39%
level
22%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
39%

An der Fahner Höhe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: An der Fahner Höhe vs Budissa Bautzen

Budissa Bautzen beat An der Fahner Höhe 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dachwig in Dachwig.