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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
Preview
07:30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
9/19/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 30Bucheon Stadium
Big match
36%
Bucheon FC 1995
model favours
36%30%35%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bucheon FC 199536%
×Draw30%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucheon FC 1995
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 117 away

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995
0.78
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995
0.89
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw
65%
Bucheon FC 1995 or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
70%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
64%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
66%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
29%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
10%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
65%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
29%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
51%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.78 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
36%
level
30%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
35%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
1995
DDWDL
FC
DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bucheon FC 1995 face Gimcheon Sangmu FC (K League 1)

K League 1 returns with Bucheon FC 1995 hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bucheon FC 1995 host Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Bucheon Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.