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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Asan Mugunghwa — K League 2 2026

Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
5/27/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 15Bucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Bucheon FC 199538%
×Draw28%
Asan Mugunghwa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucheon FC 1995
1.22
Asan Mugunghwa
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 149 away

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.18
Asan Mugunghwa
1.11

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.12
Asan Mugunghwa
1.26

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par
Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Asan Mugunghwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw
66%
Bucheon FC 1995 or Asan Mugunghwa
72%
Draw or Asan Mugunghwa
62%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
17%
Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
70%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
34%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
12%
Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
67%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
31%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
53%
Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

Asan Mugunghwa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.18 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.11 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
38%
level
28%
Asan Mugunghwa scores more
34%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Asan Mugunghwa

Bucheon FC 1995 beat Asan Mugunghwa 3-0 in K League 2 on May 27, 2024.

The match was played at Bucheon Stadium in Bucheon.