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Asan Mugunghwa vs Bucheon FC 1995 — K League 2 2026

Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
8/24/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 28Yishunsin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Asan Mugunghwa42%
×Draw27%
Bucheon FC 199532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asan Mugunghwa
1.36
Bucheon FC 1995
1.15

Asan Mugunghwa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 146 away

creates per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.31
Bucheon FC 1995
1.16

allows per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.15
Bucheon FC 1995
1.41

finishing

Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par
Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asan Mugunghwa ↓

Bucheon FC 1995 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Asan Mugunghwa or draw
68%
Asan Mugunghwa or Bucheon FC 1995
73%
Draw or Bucheon FC 1995
58%

Winning margin

Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
19%
Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
74%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
39%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
16%
Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
68%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
32%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
57%
Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asan Mugunghwa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 153 matches

Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.31 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.16 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Asan Mugunghwa scores more
42%
level
27%
Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
32%

Asan Mugunghwa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Asan Mugunghwa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Asan Mugunghwa 2–2 Bucheon FC 1995

Asan Mugunghwa and Bucheon FC 1995 drew 2-2 in K League 2 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Yishunsin Stadium in Asan.