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Bucaramanga vs Patriotas — Copa Colombia 2019

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
4/11/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga62%
×Draw21%
Patriotas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
2.02
Patriotas
0.94

Bucaramanga creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
2.05
Patriotas
0.92

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.95
Patriotas
2.00

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
83%
Bucaramanga or Patriotas
79%
Draw or Patriotas
38%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
38%
Patriotas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
87%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
60%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
33%
Patriotas 1+ goals
61%
Patriotas 2+ goals
24%
Patriotas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
79%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 2.05 + Patriotas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Patriotas attack 0.92 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
62%
level
21%
Patriotas scores more
17%

Bucaramanga at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Bucaramanga 3–0 Patriotas

Bucaramanga beat Patriotas 3-0 in Copa Colombia on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.