Bucaramanga 3–0 Patriotas: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Patriotas

3/3/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bucaramanga53%

×Draw26%

Patriotas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.82

Bucaramanga

1.50

Patriotas

0.82

Bucaramanga creates 83% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 109 away

1.38

creates per match

0.70

0.95

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.38

Patriotas

0.70

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.95

Patriotas

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

79%

Bucaramanga or Patriotas

74%

Draw or Patriotas

47%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

27%

Patriotas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

78%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

44%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

19%

Patriotas 1+ goals

56%

Patriotas 2+ goals

20%

Patriotas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

72%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 170 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.38 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

53%

level

26%

Patriotas scores more

21%

Bucaramanga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff