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BSK Banja Luka vs Borac Kozarska Dubica — 1st League - RS 2019

BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
12/1/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka70%
×Draw18%
Borac Kozarska Dubica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Banja Luka
2.24
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.78

BSK Banja Luka creates 187% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 64 away

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka
2.14
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.75

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka
0.82
Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.34

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par
Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw
88%
BSK Banja Luka or Borac Kozarska Dubica
82%
Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica
30%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
46%
Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
89%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
65%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
38%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
54%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
18%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
86%
Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.24

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more
70%
level
18%
Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
12%

BSK Banja Luka at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: BSK Banja Luka 3–1 Borac Kozarska Dubica

BSK Banja Luka beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 3-1 in 1st League - RS on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.