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Borac Kozarska Dubica vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
5/25/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 33Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica39%
×Draw26%
BSK Banja Luka35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.36
BSK Banja Luka
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 48 away

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.23
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.30
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw
65%
Borac Kozarska Dubica or BSK Banja Luka
74%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
61%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
18%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
74%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
39%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
16%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
72%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
37%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
52%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
39%
level
26%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
35%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Kozarska Dubica vs BSK Banja Luka

Borac Kozarska Dubica beat BSK Banja Luka 3-1 in 1st League - RS on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Đolovi in Kozarska Dubica.