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BSC Young Boys vs AS Roma — UEFA Europa League 2026

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
J. Nsame 14' (pen)
M. Kumbulla 73'
Bruno Peres 69'
10/22/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group A - 1Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BSC Young Boys40%
×Draw25%
AS Roma35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
1.49
AS Roma
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
1.86
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.43
AS Roma
1.12

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
AS Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
65%
BSC Young Boys or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
60%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
19%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
77%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
44%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
40%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
53%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.86 + AS Roma defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

AS Roma attack 1.32 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
40%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
35%

BSC Young Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
M. KumbullaAS RomaAS Roma · D
7.7

Match Events

14'
J. NsamePenalty
39'
Rick Karsdorp
46'
L. Spinazzola← R. Karsdorp
50'
Federico Fazio
52'
Cedric Zesiger
56'
Juan Jesus
58'
Gonzalo Villar
59'
E. Džeko← Borja Mayoral
59'
J. Veretout← Gonzalo Villar
59'
H. Mkhitaryan← Pedro
61'
Bruno Peres
65'
F. Mambimbi← M. Ngamaleu
65'
M. Elia← C. Fassnacht
69'
Bruno Peres↳ E. Džeko
70'
M. Aebischer← F. Rieder
70'
L. Pellegrini← Juan Jesus
73'
M. Kumbulla↳ H. Mkhitaryan
76'
Felix Mambimbi
79'
T. Siebatcheu← J. Nsame
79'
G. Gaudino← V. Sierro
81'
Gianluca Gaudino

Possession

44%BSC

Shots

11BSC

Pass accuracy

48%BSC

Statistics

BSCAS
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots6
5Corners4
22Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots6
4On Target2
6Off Target1
1Blocked3
7Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
375Total Passes487
278Accurate Passes384
74%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls15
3Yellow Cards5
4Offsides4

Match Recap: BSC Young Boys vs AS Roma

AS Roma beat BSC Young Boys 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 22, 2020.

Goals: J. Nsame (14' pen), Bruno Peres (69'), M. Kumbulla (73').

AS Roma controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.