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AS Roma vs BSC Young Boys — UEFA Europa League 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
E. Džeko 81'
R. Calafiori 59'
Borja Mayoral 44'
J. Nsame 34'
12/3/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group A - 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AS Roma57%
×Draw23%
BSC Young Boys20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.82
BSC Young Boys
0.97

AS Roma creates 88% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

AS Roma
2.14
BSC Young Boys
1.21

allows per match

AS Roma
0.73
BSC Young Boys
1.50

finishing

AS Roma+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
80%
AS Roma or BSC Young Boys
77%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
43%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
33%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
84%
AS Roma 2+ goals
54%
AS Roma 3+ goals
27%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
62%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
25%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
74%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 2.14 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

BSC Young Boys attack 1.21 + AS Roma defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AS Roma scores more
57%
level
23%
BSC Young Boys scores more
20%

AS Roma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

61
R. CalafioriAS RomaAS Roma · M
7.9

Match Events

29'
Riccardo Calafiori
34'
J. Nsame↳ J. Lefort
44'
Borja Mayoral
46'
H. Mkhitaryan← Pedro
46'
L. Spinazzola← Ibañez
58'
V. Sierro← F. Rieder
59'
R. Calafiori
60'
L. Pellegrini← Gonzalo Villar
60'
E. Džeko← Borja Mayoral
65'
F. Fazio← B. Cristante
67'
G. Gaudino← M. Aebischer
68'
M. Elia← U. Garcia
73'
Meschack Elia
76'
T. Siebatcheu← J. Nsame
76'
F. Mambimbi← M. Ngamaleu
81'
E. Džeko
82'
Mohamed Ali
83'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Possession

62%AS

Shots

19AS

Pass accuracy

53%AS

Statistics

ASBSC
Overview
62%Possession38%
19Total Shots7
7Corners3
8Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots7
11On Target1
3Off Target3
5Blocked3
9Inside Box5
10Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
604Total Passes358
526Accurate Passes279
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides5

UEFA Europa League: AS Roma 3–1 BSC Young Boys

AS Roma beat BSC Young Boys 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on December 3, 2020.

Goals: J. Nsame (34'), Borja Mayoral (44'), R. Calafiori (59'), E. Džeko (81').

AS Roma controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.