BSC Süd 05 vs Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
BSC Süd 0533%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin creates 18% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
BSC Süd 05 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.95 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.40
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 1.35 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Tasmania Berlin
Lichtenberg
Hansa Rostock II
Neustrelitz
Union Klosterfelde
Siedenbollentin
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Anker Wismar
Makkabi
Sparta Lichtenberg
Optik Rathenow
Tennis Borussia
BAK '07
Dynamo Schwerin
Croatia Berlin
Viktoria BerlinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
BSC Süd 05 host Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin on Sunday, 22 August 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020/2021 season.
BSC Süd 05 0 – 1 Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin beat BSC Süd 05 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 22, 2021.
The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.