Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin vs BSC Süd 05

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

CANC

12:00

BSC Süd 05

5/9/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Volksparkstadion Mariendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin66%

×Draw20%

BSC Süd 0514%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß 90 BerlinExpected goals in this matchBSC Süd 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.86

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

2.11

BSC Süd 05

0.86

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin creates 145% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

2.27

creates per match

0.76

0.97

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

2.27

BSC Süd 05

0.76

allows per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

0.97

BSC Süd 05

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin+0.00on par

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin ↓

BSC Süd 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or draw

86%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or BSC Süd 05

80%

Draw or BSC Süd 05

34%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin wins by 2+

42%

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 1+ goals

88%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2+ goals

62%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 3+ goals

35%

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

58%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

21%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin (draw refunded)

82%

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 2.27 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.11

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin scores more

66%

level

20%

BSC Süd 05 scores more

14%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff