Brusque 0–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brusque

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

7/6/2024

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Brusque48%

×Draw27%

Ponte Preta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.99

Brusque

1.45

Ponte Preta

0.99

Brusque creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.27

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Brusque

1.27

Ponte Preta

0.93

allows per match

Brusque

1.05

Ponte Preta

1.63

-0.87scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Brusque-0.87scores less

Ponte Preta-0.08on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

74%

Brusque or Ponte Preta

73%

Draw or Ponte Preta

52%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

24%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

77%

Brusque 2+ goals

42%

Brusque 3+ goals

18%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

63%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

26%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

65%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.63 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.27 + Ponte Preta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ponte Preta attack 0.93 + Brusque defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brusque scores more

48%

level

27%

Ponte Preta scores more

26%

Brusque at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Ianson

Brusque · D

7.7

Match Events

36'

Matheus RegisGoal Disallowed - offside

41'

Sergio Raphael

62'

Madison← Rodolfo Potiguar

62'

Diego Tavares← Keké

68'

Dodo

76'

Dentinho← Paulinho Moccelin

80'

Iago Dias← Dodô

88'

Guilherme Beléa← Matheus Régis

90'

Wellissol← Matheus Pivô

90'

Osman Júnior← Olávio

90+1'

Emerson← Élvis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusquePonte

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots10

7Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked1

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

463Total Passes329

355Accurate Passes229

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2