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Brusque vs Ponte Preta — Serie C 2025

Brusque
Brusque
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
10/4/2025Serie CSerie C · Second Stage - 5Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brusque38%
×Draw29%
Ponte Preta32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusque
1.16
Ponte Preta
1.04

Brusque creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brusque
1.46
Ponte Preta
1.00

allows per match

Brusque
1.08
Ponte Preta
0.85

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par
Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Brusque or draw
68%
Brusque or Ponte Preta
71%
Draw or Ponte Preta
62%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+
16%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals
69%
Brusque 2+ goals
32%
Brusque 3+ goals
11%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
65%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
28%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)
54%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.46 + Ponte Preta defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ponte Preta attack 1.00 + Brusque defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brusque scores more
38%
level
29%
Ponte Preta scores more
32%

Brusque at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brusque vs Ponte Preta

Brusque beat Ponte Preta 2-1 in Serie C on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque.