Brusque 0–0 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brusque

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avai

6/20/2024

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Brusque43%

×Draw28%

Avai29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

Brusque

1.31

Avai

1.03

Brusque creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

1.01

1.05

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Brusque

1.27

Avai

1.01

allows per match

Brusque

1.05

Avai

1.34

-0.87scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Brusque-0.87scores less

Avai-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

71%

Brusque or Avai

72%

Draw or Avai

57%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

20%

Avai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

73%

Brusque 2+ goals

38%

Brusque 3+ goals

14%

Avai 1+ goals

64%

Avai 2+ goals

28%

Avai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

59%

Avai (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Avai away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.34 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.27 + Avai defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avai attack 1.01 + Brusque defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brusque scores more

43%

level

28%

Avai scores more

29%

Brusque at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Natanael

Avai · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

25'

46'

60'

60'

Keké← Olávio

61'

Paulinho Moccelin← Diego Mathias

66'

70'

73'

73'

73'

74'

76'

84'

Jhemerson← Rodolfo Potiguar

86'

Éverton Alemão

90+1'

Roberto← Hygor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusqueAvai

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots8

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.91

3Corners9

16Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

3Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

478Total Passes292

385Accurate Passes197

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Brusque 0 – 0 Avai

Brusque and Avai drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 20, 2024.

Brusque controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.

Brusque vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Brusque 0 – 0 Avai