Brusque 0–0 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brusque

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avai

9/3/2021

Serie B · Round 22Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Brusque43%

×Draw28%

Avai29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

Brusque

1.31

Avai

1.03

Brusque creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

1.01

1.05

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Brusque

1.27

Avai

1.01

allows per match

Brusque

1.05

Avai

1.34

-0.87scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Brusque-0.87scores less

Avai-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

71%

Brusque or Avai

72%

Draw or Avai

57%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

20%

Avai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

73%

Brusque 2+ goals

38%

Brusque 3+ goals

14%

Avai 1+ goals

64%

Avai 2+ goals

28%

Avai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

59%

Avai (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Avai away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.34 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.27 + Avai defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avai attack 1.01 + Brusque defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brusque scores more

43%

level

28%

Avai scores more

29%

Brusque at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ruan Carneiro

Brusque · G

7.5

Match Events

51'

Zé Carlos

52'

GetúlioPenalty confirmed

54'

Ruan Carneiro← Garcez

61'

Diego← Thiago Alagoano

61'

Alex Ruan← Bruno Alves

64'

Rômulo← Marcos Serrato

66'

Lourenço

72'

Jonathan← Getúlio

73'

Valdívia← Vinícius Leite

83'

Marlone← Edu

86'

Diego Renan← João Lucas

86'

Jean Cleber← Bruno Silva

90+1'

Valdívia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusqueAvai

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots23

2Corners12

12Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots23

2On Target6

6Off Target8

1Blocked9

2Inside Box9

7Outside Box14

Passing

32%Possession68%

252Total Passes528

175Accurate Passes445

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Brusque vs Avai

Brusque and Avai drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 3, 2021.

Avai controlled possession (68%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque, Santa Catarina.

Brusque vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brusque vs Avai