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Brunei vs Timor-Leste — AFF Championship 2018

Brunei
Brunei
CANC
09:00
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
12/1/2021AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brunei35%
×Draw21%
Timor-Leste44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunei
1.83
Timor-Leste
2.05

Timor-Leste creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Brunei
1.17
Timor-Leste
1.10

allows per match

Brunei
3.00
Timor-Leste
2.50

finishing

Brunei+0.00on par
Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunei ↓

Timor-Leste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Brunei or draw
56%
Brunei or Timor-Leste
79%
Draw or Timor-Leste
65%

Winning margin

Brunei wins by 2+
18%
Timor-Leste wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Brunei 1+ goals
84%
Brunei 2+ goals
54%
Brunei 3+ goals
28%
Timor-Leste 1+ goals
87%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
61%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Brunei (draw refunded)
45%
Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunei at home — creates 1.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunei attack 1.17 + Timor-Leste defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Timor-Leste attack 1.10 + Brunei defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brunei scores more
35%
level
21%
Timor-Leste scores more
44%

Timor-Leste at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Timor-Leste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brunei vs Timor-Leste — Match Preview

Brunei face Timor-Leste on December 1, 2021 in this AFF Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.