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Brown DE Adrogue vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Almagro
Almagro
7/13/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 23Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Brown DE Adrogue42%
×Draw30%
Almagro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brown DE Adrogue
1.14
Almagro
0.86

Brown DE Adrogue creates 33% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 127 away

creates per match

Brown DE Adrogue
0.99
Almagro
0.76

allows per match

Brown DE Adrogue
0.97
Almagro
1.28

finishing

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brown DE Adrogue ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Brown DE Adrogue or draw
73%
Brown DE Adrogue or Almagro
70%
Draw or Almagro
58%

Winning margin

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
18%
Almagro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
68%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
32%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
11%
Almagro 1+ goals
58%
Almagro 2+ goals
21%
Almagro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
60%
Almagro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brown DE Adrogue at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 100 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.99 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Almagro attack 0.76 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brown DE Adrogue scores more
42%
level
30%
Almagro scores more
27%

Brown DE Adrogue at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brown DE Adrogue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brown DE Adrogue vs Almagro

Almagro beat Brown DE Adrogue 2-0 in Primera Nacional on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla in Almirante Brown, Provincia de Buenos Aires.