Almagro 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue: Result & Stats

Almagro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brown DE Adrogue

2/24/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 4Estadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Almagro40%

×Draw32%

Brown DE Adrogue28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmagroExpected goals in this matchBrown DE Adrogue

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.82

Almagro

1.05

Brown DE Adrogue

0.82

Almagro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 97 away

0.97

creates per match

0.85

0.79

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Almagro

0.97

Brown DE Adrogue

0.85

allows per match

Almagro

0.79

Brown DE Adrogue

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Brown DE Adrogue →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almagro or draw

72%

Almagro or Brown DE Adrogue

68%

Draw or Brown DE Adrogue

60%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+

16%

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals

65%

Almagro 2+ goals

28%

Almagro 3+ goals

9%

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals

56%

Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals

20%

Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)

59%

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.79 · 128 matches

Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 0.97 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.85 + Almagro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almagro scores more

40%

level

32%

Brown DE Adrogue scores more

28%

Almagro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almagro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff