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Brothers Union vs Sheikh Jamal — Premier League 2019

Brothers Union
Brothers Union
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
1/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Brothers Union28%
×Draw24%
Sheikh Jamal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brothers Union
1.25
Sheikh Jamal
1.69

Sheikh Jamal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 56 away

creates per match

Brothers Union
1.13
Sheikh Jamal
1.45

allows per match

Brothers Union
1.93
Sheikh Jamal
1.38

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par
Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Sheikh Jamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw
52%
Brothers Union or Sheikh Jamal
76%
Draw or Sheikh Jamal
72%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+
12%
Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals
71%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
36%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
13%
Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
82%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
50%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)
37%
Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.13 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Brothers Union defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brothers Union scores more
28%
level
24%
Sheikh Jamal scores more
48%

Sheikh Jamal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brothers Union vs Sheikh Jamal

Sheikh Jamal beat Brothers Union 2-0 in Premier League on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Rajshahi District Stadium in Rajshahi.