Brothers Union 0–1 Bangladesh Police

Brothers Union

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bangladesh Police

9/27/2025

Premier League · Round 1Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Brothers Union29%

×Draw25%

Bangladesh Police46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brothers UnionExpected goals in this matchBangladesh Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.57

Brothers Union

1.19

Bangladesh Police

1.57

Bangladesh Police creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 62 away

1.13

creates per match

1.21

1.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Brothers Union

1.13

Bangladesh Police

1.21

allows per match

Brothers Union

1.93

Bangladesh Police

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Bangladesh Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw

54%

Brothers Union or Bangladesh Police

75%

Draw or Bangladesh Police

71%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+

12%

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals

70%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

33%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

12%

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals

79%

Bangladesh Police 2+ goals

46%

Bangladesh Police 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

39%

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

Bangladesh Police away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.13 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bangladesh Police attack 1.21 + Brothers Union defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brothers Union scores more

29%

level

25%

Bangladesh Police scores more

46%

Bangladesh Police at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bangladesh Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff