Bangladesh Police 1–0 Brothers Union

Bangladesh Police

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brothers Union

2/21/2025

Premier League · Round 10Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bangladesh Police52%

×Draw23%

Brothers Union25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangladesh PoliceExpected goals in this matchBrothers Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.18

Bangladesh Police

1.79

Brothers Union

1.18

Bangladesh Police creates 52% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 53 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Bangladesh Police

1.40

Brothers Union

1.06

allows per match

Bangladesh Police

1.29

Brothers Union

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh Police ↓

Brothers Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bangladesh Police or draw

75%

Bangladesh Police or Brothers Union

77%

Draw or Brothers Union

48%

Winning margin

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+

29%

Brothers Union wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals

83%

Bangladesh Police 2+ goals

53%

Bangladesh Police 3+ goals

26%

Brothers Union 1+ goals

69%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

33%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)

67%

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh Police at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 63 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh Police attack 1.40 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.79

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bangladesh Police scores more

52%

level

23%

Brothers Union scores more

25%

Bangladesh Police at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bangladesh Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff