Brothers Union 0–5 Abahani Chittagong

Brothers Union

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Abahani Chittagong

4/27/2024

Premier League · Round 13Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Brothers Union33%

×Draw24%

Abahani Chittagong43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brothers UnionExpected goals in this matchAbahani Chittagong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.63

Brothers Union

1.41

Abahani Chittagong

1.63

Abahani Chittagong creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 67 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.93

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Brothers Union

1.13

Abahani Chittagong

1.33

allows per match

Brothers Union

1.93

Abahani Chittagong

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Abahani Chittagong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw

57%

Brothers Union or Abahani Chittagong

76%

Draw or Abahani Chittagong

67%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+

15%

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals

76%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

41%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

17%

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

80%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

48%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

44%

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.13 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Brothers Union defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brothers Union scores more

33%

level

24%

Abahani Chittagong scores more

43%

Abahani Chittagong at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff