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Abahani Chittagong vs Brothers Union — Federation Cup 2020

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
3 – 0
Brothers Union
Brothers Union
2/13/2024Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Abahani Chittagong54%
×Draw24%
Brothers Union22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
1.75
Brothers Union
1.04

Abahani Chittagong creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.00
Brothers Union
0.50

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.57
Brothers Union
2.50

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Brothers Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
78%
Abahani Chittagong or Brothers Union
76%
Draw or Brothers Union
46%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
30%
Brothers Union wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
83%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
52%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
25%
Brothers Union 1+ goals
65%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
28%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
71%
Brothers Union (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.00 + Brothers Union defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Brothers Union attack 0.50 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
54%
level
24%
Brothers Union scores more
22%

Abahani Chittagong at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani Chittagong vs Brothers Union

Abahani Chittagong beat Brothers Union 3-0 in Federation Cup on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.