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Brora Rangers vs Nairn County — League #730 2026

Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
Preview
14:00
Nairn County
Nairn County
10/10/2026League #730League #730
Big match
62%
Brora Rangers
model favours
62%19%19%

Brora Rangers score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brora Rangers62%
×Draw19%
Nairn County19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brora Rangers
2.35
Nairn County
1.21

Brora Rangers creates 94% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brora Rangers
3.00
Nairn County
1.29

allows per match

Brora Rangers
1.12
Nairn County
1.71

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par
Nairn County+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Nairn County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw
81%
Brora Rangers or Nairn County
81%
Draw or Nairn County
38%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+
40%
Nairn County wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals
90%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
68%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
41%
Nairn County 1+ goals
70%
Nairn County 2+ goals
34%
Nairn County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
77%
Nairn County (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Nairn County away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 3.00 + Nairn County defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nairn County attack 1.29 + Brora Rangers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brora Rangers scores more
62%
level
19%
Nairn County scores more
19%

Brora Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brora Rangers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Brora Rangers 2 vs Nairn County 3
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rangers
LLLLL
County
LDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brora Rangers vs Nairn County — Match Preview

Brora Rangers face Nairn County on October 10, 2026 in this League #730 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.