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Brora Rangers vs Formartine United — League #730 2026

Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Formartine United
Formartine United
M. Maclean 13'
J. Crawford 73' (pen)
A. Reid 60', 15', 7'
3/16/2024League #730League #730 · Highland League - 31Dudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brora Rangers56%
×Draw20%
Formartine United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brora Rangers
2.33
Formartine United
1.48

Brora Rangers creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brora Rangers
3.00
Formartine United
1.83

allows per match

Brora Rangers
1.12
Formartine United
1.67

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par
Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Formartine United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw
76%
Brora Rangers or Formartine United
80%
Draw or Formartine United
44%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+
35%
Formartine United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals
90%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
67%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
41%
Formartine United 1+ goals
77%
Formartine United 2+ goals
43%
Formartine United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
70%
Formartine United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Formartine United away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 3.00 + Formartine United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Formartine United attack 1.83 + Brora Rangers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brora Rangers scores more
56%
level
20%
Formartine United scores more
24%

Brora Rangers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Reid
13'
M. Maclean
15'
A. Reid
60'
A. Reid
73'
J. CrawfordPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #730: Brora Rangers 1–4 Formartine United

Formartine United beat Brora Rangers 4-1 in League #730 on March 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Reid (7', 15', 60'), M. Maclean (13'), J. Crawford (73' pen).

The match was played at Dudgeon Park in Brora.