Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Broń Radom vs Bełchatów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
5/21/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Broń Radom47%
×Draw24%
Bełchatów29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.73
Bełchatów
1.31

Broń Radom creates 32% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Bełchatów
1.37

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Bełchatów
1.98

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
71%
Broń Radom or Bełchatów
76%
Draw or Bełchatów
53%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
25%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
82%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
52%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
25%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
73%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
38%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
62%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Broń Radom scores more
47%
level
24%
Bełchatów scores more
29%

Broń Radom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Broń Radom vs Bełchatów

Bełchatów beat Broń Radom 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.