Bełchatów 4–4 Broń Radom: Result & Stats

Bełchatów

FT

4 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Broń Radom

8/9/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 2GIEKSA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bełchatów50%

×Draw23%

Broń Radom27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BełchatówExpected goals in this matchBroń Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.31

Bełchatów

1.85

Broń Radom

1.31

Bełchatów creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.82

creates per match

1.17

1.45

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Bełchatów

1.82

Broń Radom

1.17

allows per match

Bełchatów

1.45

Broń Radom

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Broń Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw

73%

Bełchatów or Broń Radom

77%

Draw or Broń Radom

50%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+

28%

Broń Radom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals

84%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

55%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

28%

Broń Radom 1+ goals

73%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

38%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

65%

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bełchatów scores more

50%

level

23%

Broń Radom scores more

27%

Bełchatów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff