Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bromley vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
L. Dennis 90+6'
H. Saunders 80'
O. Patrick 75'
10/19/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bromley55%
×Draw23%
Tranmere23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.84
Tranmere
1.10

Bromley creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.27
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Bromley
1.06
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Bromley-0.45scores less
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
77%
Bromley or Tranmere
77%
Draw or Tranmere
45%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
31%
Tranmere wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
84%
Bromley 2+ goals
55%
Bromley 3+ goals
28%
Tranmere 1+ goals
67%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
71%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.06 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.27 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Bromley defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bromley scores more
55%
level
23%
Tranmere scores more
23%

Bromley at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
D. ImrayBromleyBromley · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
Sam Finley
19'
Olufela Olomola
24'
Luke McGee
28'
Connor Jennings
33'
Luke Norris
46'
L. Leigh← A. Charles
46'
L. Amantchi← O. Olomola
55'
L. Dennis← M. Cheek
57'
R. Hendry← J. Davison
57'
Z. Bradshaw← C. Jennings
62'
Zak Bradshaw
75'
O. Patrick↳ B. Walker
77'
C. Congreve← B. Thompson
80'
H. Saunders← O. Patrick
80'
C. Merrie← S. Finley
80'
H. Saunders
90+6'
L. Dennis↳ I. Odutayo

Possession

51%Bromley

Shots

25Bromley

Pass accuracy

53%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyTranmere
Overview
51%Possession49%
25Total Shots11
9Corners6
9Fouls11
Shots
25Total Shots11
8On Target3
12Off Target4
5Blocked4
15Inside Box9
10Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
284Total Passes287
204Accurate Passes180
72%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards5
2Offsides2

League Two: Bromley 1–2 Tranmere

Tranmere beat Bromley 2-1 in League Two on October 19, 2024.

Goals: O. Patrick (75'), H. Saunders (80'), L. Dennis (90+6').

Bromley controlled possession (51%) and registered 25 shots to 11.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.