Bromley 2–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Bromley

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fleetwood Town

N. Kabamba 73'

M. Dinanga 30'

J. Norwood 90'

J. Bolton 8'

8/16/2025

League Two · Round 3Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bromley55%

×Draw22%

Fleetwood Town22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.13

Bromley

1.90

Fleetwood Town

1.13

Bromley creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.27

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Bromley

2.27

Fleetwood Town

1.19

allows per match

Bromley

1.06

Fleetwood Town

1.52

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Bromley-0.45scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

78%

Bromley or Fleetwood Town

78%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

45%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

32%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

85%

Bromley 2+ goals

56%

Bromley 3+ goals

29%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

68%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

31%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

71%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.06 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.27 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.90

Fleetwood Town attack 1.19 + Bromley defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bromley scores more

55%

level

22%

Fleetwood Town scores more

22%

Bromley at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Bolton

Fleetwood Town · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

30'

42'

57'

64'

66'

N. Kabamba← M. Dinanga

66'

G. Morrison← M. Helm

67'

B. Krauhaus← C. Whitely

73'

N. Kabamba↳ B. Krauhaus

76'

J. Norwood← W. Davies

76'

C. Evans← R. Graydon

83'

J. Arthurs← A. Charles

83'

85'

90+4'

90+4'

90'

B. Thompson← M. Ifill

90'

J. Norwood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyFleetwood

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots14

7Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target4

5Off Target3

7Blocked7

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

284Total Passes281

158Accurate Passes172

56%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Bromley vs Fleetwood Town

Bromley and Fleetwood Town drew 2-2 in League Two on August 16, 2025.

Goals: J. Bolton (8'), M. Dinanga (30'), N. Kabamba (73'), J. Norwood (90').

Bromley controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.

Bromley vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bromley vs Fleetwood Town