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Bromley vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
M. Pinnock 4'
I. Hutchinson 25'
2/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bromley54%
×Draw23%
Cheltenham23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.77
Cheltenham
1.06

Bromley creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.18
Cheltenham
1.05

allows per match

Bromley
1.07
Cheltenham
1.36

finishing

Bromley-0.43scores less
Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
77%
Bromley or Cheltenham
77%
Draw or Cheltenham
46%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
30%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
83%
Bromley 2+ goals
53%
Bromley 3+ goals
26%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
65%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
29%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
70%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.18 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Bromley defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bromley scores more
54%
level
23%
Cheltenham scores more
23%

Bromley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PinnockBromleyBromley · M
8.7

Match Events

4'
M. Pinnock
25'
I. Hutchinson↳ J. Thomas
46'
J. Arthurs← A. Charles
49'
William Hondermarck
55'
James Wilson
60'
B. Ilunga← B. Krauhaus
60'
N. Kabamba← B. Thompson
64'
J. Davison← G. Miller
71'
Grant Smith
71'
Isaac Hutchinson
80'
Idris Odutayo
82'
O. Sowunmi← I. Odutayo
83'
R. Broom← J. Thomas

Possession

50%Bromley

Shots

17Bromley

Pass accuracy

46%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyCheltenham
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots16
7Corners3
12Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots16
5On Target6
8Off Target9
4Blocked1
12Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
324Total Passes343
178Accurate Passes222
55%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Bromley vs Cheltenham

Bromley and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in League Two on February 17, 2026.

Goals: M. Pinnock (4'), I. Hutchinson (25').

Bromley controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.