Bromley 3–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cheltenham

M. Cheek 53', 26' (pen)

N. Kabamba 45+3'

5/3/2025

League Two · Round 46Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bromley54%

×Draw23%

Cheltenham23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

Bromley

1.77

Cheltenham

1.06

Bromley creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.18

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bromley

2.18

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Bromley

1.07

Cheltenham

1.36

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Bromley-0.43scores less

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

77%

Bromley or Cheltenham

77%

Draw or Cheltenham

46%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

30%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

83%

Bromley 2+ goals

53%

Bromley 3+ goals

26%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

65%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

70%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.18 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Bromley defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bromley scores more

54%

level

23%

Cheltenham scores more

23%

Bromley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

N. Kabamba

Bromley · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

Tommy Backwell

26'

M. CheekPenalty

40'

G. Miller← T. Backwell

45+3'

N. Kabamba↳ D. Elerewe

53'

59'

60'

60'

60'

61'

B. Ilunga← C. Congreve

62'

N. Paul-Lavely← D. Imray

66'

M. Taylor← L. Dulson

71'

J. Arthurs← B. Thompson

72'

82'

83'

83'

89'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyCheltenham

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots10

4Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target1

1Off Target6

3Blocked3

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

271Total Passes229

163Accurate Passes127

60%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

League Two: Bromley 3–0 Cheltenham

Bromley beat Cheltenham 3-0 in League Two on May 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Cheek (26' pen, 53'), N. Kabamba (45+3').

Bromley controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.

Bromley vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Bromley 3–0 Cheltenham