Bromley 2–1 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

N. Kabamba 88'

M. Ifill 32'

B. Whitfield 50'

11/15/2025

League Two · Round 16Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bromley63%

×Draw21%

Barrow16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.87

Bromley

1.96

Barrow

0.87

Bromley creates 125% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.02

creates per match

0.87

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Bromley

2.02

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Bromley

0.87

Barrow

1.91

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Bromley-0.35scores less

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

84%

Bromley or Barrow

79%

Draw or Barrow

37%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

38%

Barrow wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

86%

Bromley 2+ goals

58%

Bromley 3+ goals

31%

Barrow 1+ goals

58%

Barrow 2+ goals

22%

Barrow 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

80%

Barrow (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.87 · 6 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.02 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Barrow attack 0.87 + Bromley defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bromley scores more

63%

level

21%

Barrow scores more

16%

Bromley at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Ifill

Bromley · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

M. Ifill↳ A. Charles

45'

Corey Whitely

45+6'

C. Mahoney← L. Shipley

50'

B. Whitfield↳ R. Harper

59'

B. Krauhaus← J. Arthurs

68'

N. Kabamba← C. Whitely

72'

78'

79'

81'

88'

90'

I. Fletcher← R. Harper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyBarrow

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots7

2.78Expected Goals (xG)0.26

4Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

339Total Passes334

208Accurate Passes218

61%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4