Barrow 2–1 Bromley: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bromley

D. Rose 67'

J. Gordon 56'

A. Charles 35'

3/28/2026

League Two · Round 40Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow35%

×Draw27%

Bromley38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.25

Barrow

1.18

Bromley

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

0.81

creates per match

1.11

1.38

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Bromley

1.11

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Bromley

1.54

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Bromley+0.39scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

62%

Barrow or Bromley

73%

Draw or Bromley

65%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

14%

Bromley wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Bromley 1+ goals

71%

Bromley 2+ goals

36%

Bromley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

48%

Bromley (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Bromley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bromley attack 1.11 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more

35%

level

27%

Bromley scores more

38%

Bromley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

D. Rose

Barrow · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

34'

35'

45'

56'

61'

62'

63'

J. Arthurs← W. Hondermarck

67'

73'

77'

82'

87'

87'

B. Ilunga← I. Odutayo

88'

J. Malcolm← J. Earing

90+6'

Niall Canavan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowBromley

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots8

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.75

6Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target3

6Off Target2

5Blocked3

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

240Total Passes292

141Accurate Passes183

59%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1