Bromley 1–2 Barrow: Result & Stats | League #43

Bromley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Barrow

M. Cheek 86'

S. Quigley 53'

D. Angus 36'

10/5/2019

League #43 · Round 18Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bromley53%

×Draw24%

Barrow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

Bromley

1.69

Barrow

1.01

Bromley creates 67% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Bromley

1.67

Barrow

0.90

allows per match

Bromley

1.11

Barrow

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bromley+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

77%

Bromley or Barrow

76%

Draw or Barrow

47%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

29%

Barrow wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

82%

Bromley 2+ goals

50%

Bromley 3+ goals

24%

Barrow 1+ goals

64%

Barrow 2+ goals

27%

Barrow 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

70%

Barrow (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 1.67 + Barrow defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Barrow attack 0.90 + Bromley defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bromley scores more

53%

level

24%

Barrow scores more

23%

Bromley at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

41'

41'

53'

58'

S. McCoulsky← A. Clifton

70'

J. Hindle← D. Angus

75'

B. Harrison← S. Quigley

77'

A. Mekki← R. Hackett-Fairchild

78'

O. Dyson← L. Hardcastle

80'

M. Klass← A. Doughty

83'

O. Dyson

86'

M. Cheek

Bromley

Barrow

▼

⚽

▼

Quigley

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: N. Smith

58'▲S. McCoulsky←▼A. Clifton

77'▲A. Mekki←▼R. Hackett-Fairchild

80'▲M. Klass←▼A. Doughty

Bromley substitutes

McCoulskyMekkiKlassDunneRees

Manager: I. Evatt

70'▲J. Hindle←▼D. Angus

75'▲B. Harrison←▼S. Quigley

78'▲O. Dyson←▼L. Hardcastle

Barrow substitutes

HindleHarrisonDysonBrownGranite

League #43: Bromley 1–2 Barrow

Barrow beat Bromley 2-1 in League #43 on October 5, 2019.

Goals: D. Angus (36'), S. Quigley (53'), M. Cheek (86').

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.

Bromley vs Barrow — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Bromley 1–2 Barrow