Bromley 2–0 Barnet: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnet

N. Kabamba 90'

M. Cheek 36'

8/9/2025

League Two · Round 2Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bromley47%

×Draw25%

Barnet28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Bromley

1.58

Barnet

1.17

Bromley creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.86

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bromley

1.86

Barnet

1.35

allows per match

Bromley

0.99

Barnet

1.29

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Bromley-0.26scores less

Barnet-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

72%

Bromley or Barnet

75%

Draw or Barnet

53%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

24%

Barnet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

79%

Bromley 2+ goals

47%

Bromley 3+ goals

21%

Barnet 1+ goals

69%

Barnet 2+ goals

33%

Barnet 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

62%

Barnet (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 1.86 + Barnet defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Barnet attack 1.35 + Bromley defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bromley scores more

47%

level

25%

Barnet scores more

28%

Bromley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Cameron

Bromley · D

7.5

Match Events

31'

Marcus Ifill

35'

Romoney Crichlow

36'

M. Cheek↳ B. Thompson

46'

I. Odutayo← M. Ifill

67'

A. Senior← R. Crichlow-Noble

67'

Z. Brunt← D. Adeniran

72'

M. Dinanga← B. Thompson

72'

78'

82'

84'

84'

J. Arthurs← C. Whitely

84'

O. Hawkins← N. Tavares

90+3'

D. Elerewe← K. Cameron

90'

N. Kabamba↳ W. Hondermarck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyBarnet

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots10

1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.64

6Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target2

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

256Total Passes443

147Accurate Passes354

57%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2