Barnet 2–2 Bromley: Result & Stats | League Two

Barnet

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bromley

K. Tshimanga 76' (pen)

P. Chinedu 18'

G. Evans 90'

N. Kabamba 12'

4/3/2026

League Two · Round 41The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet50%

×Draw23%

Bromley26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.22

Barnet

1.78

Bromley

1.22

Barnet creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.03

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Barnet

2.03

Bromley

1.11

allows per match

Barnet

1.32

Bromley

1.54

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less

Bromley+0.39scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

74%

Barnet or Bromley

77%

Draw or Bromley

50%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

28%

Bromley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

83%

Barnet 2+ goals

53%

Barnet 3+ goals

26%

Bromley 1+ goals

70%

Bromley 2+ goals

34%

Bromley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

66%

Bromley (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Bromley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bromley attack 1.11 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barnet scores more

50%

level

23%

Bromley scores more

26%

Barnet at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Shelton

Barnet · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

N. Kabamba

18'

P. Chinedu↳ R. Glover

49'

69'

74'

76'

76'

K. TshimangaPenalty

82'

82'

87'

89'

90+12'

90+3'

O. Hawkins← K. Tshimanga

90+2'

B. Ilunga← C. Whitely

90+10'

G. Evans← D. Ajayi

90'

G. Evans↳ M. Dinanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetBromley

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots16

6Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target7

8Off Target5

4Blocked4

12Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

327Total Passes220

191Accurate Passes115

58%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1