Broki 2–0 Bintang Lair: Result & Stats

Broki

FT

2 – 0

Bintang Lair

3/5/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 2Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Broki51%

×Draw19%

Bintang Lair30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrokiExpected goals in this matchBintang Lair

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.96

Broki

2.59

Bintang Lair

1.96

Broki creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 16 away

1.56

creates per match

1.31

2.61

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Broki

1.56

Bintang Lair

1.31

allows per match

Broki

2.61

Bintang Lair

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broki+0.00on par

Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

Bintang Lair →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Broki or draw

70%

Broki or Bintang Lair

81%

Draw or Bintang Lair

49%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+

32%

Bintang Lair wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals

92%

Broki 2+ goals

73%

Broki 3+ goals

47%

Bintang Lair 1+ goals

86%

Bintang Lair 2+ goals

58%

Bintang Lair 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)

63%

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.59

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Broki scores more

51%

level

19%

Bintang Lair scores more

30%

Broki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Broki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff